Powell’s Bet Against Recession Looks Good — Minus the Credit Crunch and a DC Standoff

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reckons the US economy can skirt recession. But the odds are stacked against him — thanks to banking, politics, and even the weather.

In Powell’s view, the gravity-defying strength of American labor markets — on display again in jobs data published Friday, which showed a bumper increase last month — is smoothing the way for a soft landing, even after five percentage points of interest-rate hikes in little over a year. 

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